RU
District passport · draft generated from data

Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai

Sources, standards, assumptions and method behind the district twin of JVC. Every number below carries a source in square brackets; the list of sources is at the end. Places where a building block has not yet delivered its file are marked Pending with the file name.

Generated2026-10-09 15:36 (local time) by pasport/sobrat.py
District outlineOpenStreetMap way 874795302 [1]; not the official DM community boundary
StatusInternal draft of 09.10.2026. Model results are calculated on open data; none of them is calibrated against city measurements (see chapter 6).

At a glance

Buildings3,393, of which 2,862 with estimated height Calculated [2, height_source]
Residentsa range of 31,371 to 124,953 from three sources (chapter 3) [3] [4, s. 3]
Units under construction13,147 in the DLD register to about 46,210 by an aggregator [5] [6] Vendor source
Traffic, baseline morning peak5 of 19 exits and entries red, red ones include Al Khail Road, Hessa Street Calculated [7, vyezdov_krasnyh]
Stormwater, network sized by us to the DM standardover full-bore capacity on 98.6 % of its length in the 1-in-100-year storm (chapter 8) Calculated [8, periody.t100]

How to read the labels

Datanumber or fact taken from a document page or an open data file
Calculatedproduced by our model from data and standards
Substituteno Dubai standard exists or is open; a stated replacement is used
Assumptiona choice we made and wrote down
Our arithmeticarithmetic on numbers from a document, shown in full
Vendor sourcefrom a site of a company selling a product or service
Not verifiedwe could not open or check the primary source
HQ decisiondecision of the project HQ, dated

1. Data and licences: open layers, with what each one lacks

Base layers (block a)

LayerObjectsSource and extract dateLicenceAssumptionReconstructed
granica.geojson1OpenStreetMap way 874795302 (place=neighbourhood), Overpass, extract 2026-10-08T23:21:04Z, OSM database snapshot 2026-10-08T23:19:35ZODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributors, openstreetmap.org/copyrightOSM outline, not the official DM community boundary (presumably Al Barsha South Fourth, 681; Dubai Pulse not reachable from our address)— [9, sloi.granica.geojson]
zdaniya.geojson3,393OSM (Overpass) + Overture 2026-09-23.1 (Microsoft ML, 342 footprints with no OSM match)ODbL 1.0heights and floors without a tag set by building class; class by footprint area for building=yes; residents and jobs by the rules in the data passport; construction state from OSM construction tagsheight estimated for 84 %, class by area rule for 78 %, residents and jobs calculated for 100 % [9, sloi.zdaniya.geojson]
dorogi.geojson7,893OpenStreetMap, Overpass, extract 2026-10-08T23:21:15Z, OSM database snapshot 2026-07-24T11:04:51ZODbL 1.0lanes without a tag: residential 2, service roads and ramps 1 or 2, major roads by class median; speed by class median or a table4,704 drivable ways, 771 km; lanes reconstructed on 57 % of length, speed on 71 % [9, sloi.dorogi.geojson]
ostanovki.geojson22RTA GTFS, MobilityDatabase mdb-3359, latest.zip of 20.07.2026 (Last-Modified), feed files of 27.08.2025; service 20250829–20251231Dubai Pulse Open Data Licence (DDE; link on MobilityDatabase card mdb-3359; text read from an Internet Archive copy of 07.07.2022): commercial use allowed; RTA attribution and a link to the source required; the product must not be associated with the Government of Dubai or RTA; publisher RTA; mirror GitLab Lach-anonym/dubai-gtfsservice calendar 29.08–31.12.2025; weekday = Monday0 % [9, sloi.ostanovki.geojson]
marshruty.geojson5RTA GTFS, MobilityDatabase mdb-3359, latest.zip of 20.07.2026 (Last-Modified), feed files of 27.08.2025; service 20250829–20251231Dubai Pulse Open Data Licence (DDE; link on MobilityDatabase card mdb-3359; text read from an Internet Archive copy of 07.07.2022): commercial use allowed; RTA attribution and a link to the source required; the product must not be associated with the Government of Dubai or RTA; publisher RTA; mirror GitLab Lach-anonym/dubai-gtfsone most frequent shape per route and direction, clipped to a 1 km buffer0 % [9, sloi.marshruty.geojson]
proisshestviya.geojson1,661Dubai Police, Dubai Pulse dp_traffic_incidents-open, Internet Archive copy of 12.05.2024; period 2023-03-09..2024-05-12Dubai Pulse Open Data Licence (DDE) taken as the portal licence; the dataset card says “License not specified” (our assumption); text read from an Internet Archive copy of 07.07.2022: commercial use allowed; Dubai Police attribution and a link required; the product must not be associated with the Government of Dubai or the Police; publisher Dubai Policecategories translated by us; points within a 300 m buffer0 % (category translation ours) [9, sloi.proisshestviya.geojson]
relief.tif1Copernicus DEM GLO-30, AWS COGCopernicus DEM licence, attribution required (relief.LICENZIYA.txt)surface model captured 2010–2015, error up to 4 m, used as a backdrop only0 % [9, sloi.relief.tif]
stroyki.geojson107recon 08: mirror of the DLD project register (datadubai, cut-off 02.10.2026) + Property Finder listing; coordinates from OSMCC BY 4.0 (DLD mirror, as declared by the repository); Property Finder has no licence, facts only; coordinates ODbLcoordinates = district centre; floors flagged; unit counts only for the 37 DLD projectsdistrict-level coordinates for 102, none for 5; units empty for 70 of 107 [9, sloi.stroyki.geojson]
taz.geojson69calculated by block (a) from outline, roads and buildingsODbL 1.0 (derived)500 m grid; external zones at the network edge, weight = lanes × class100 % calculated [9, sloi.taz.geojson]
od.csv7,246calculated by block (a): gravity model on buildings, scenario “today” without buildings under constructionderivedtrip rates are our assumption, in the order of magnitude of recon report 04, s. 3.4100 % calculated [9, sloi.od.csv]
od_2029.csv7,280same, “2029”: OSM construction sites + DLD projects from recon 08derivedrecon-08 projects placed in the zone of the district centre (indicative location); lower bound100 % calculated [9, sloi.od_2029.csv]
od_2029_verh.csv7,227same + Property Finder projectsderivedProperty Finder units by the DLD median (our assumption); upper bound100 % calculated [9, sloi.od_2029_verh.csv]

Network and safety layers (block c)

LayerObjectsLicenceAssumption
seti/voda_truby.geojson2,629ODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributors; DEWA and DM standards cited from open documents (DM marks them Open Data, DEWA states no licence); numbers calculated by usToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. CALCULATED NETWORK, not the DEWA network: pipes laid along streets and sized to DEWA 2023 criteria for today's load at 50% occupancy; inlet 1.5 bar; terrain ignored. City data will replace it. [10, metadata]
seti/kanal_truby.geojson1,762ODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributors; DEWA and DM standards cited from open documents (DM marks them Open Data, DEWA states no licence); numbers calculated by usToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. CALCULATED NETWORK, not the DM sewer: gravity tree along streets to one assumed outfall, sized to DM 2024 guidelines for today's load at 50% occupancy. City data will replace it. [11, metadata]
seti/livnevka_truby.geojson1,745ODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributors; DEWA and DM standards cited from open documents (DM marks them Open Data, DEWA states no licence); numbers calculated by usCALCULATED NETWORK, not the DM stormwater system: pipes along streets, catchments up to 80 ha, sized to the DM 2024 1-in-5-year storm. Pipe capacity check of a synthesised network against design rainfall; it does not model where water goes on the surface. [12, metadata]
seti/niziny.geojson49Copernicus DEM GLO-30: produced using Copernicus WorldDEM-30 © DLR e.V. 2010-2014 and © Airbus Defence and Space GmbH 2014-2018 provided under COPERNICUS by the European Union and ESA; all rights reservedLow-lying spots in the open Copernicus GLO-30 surface model (30 m, vertical error up to 4 m, captured 2010-2015). No drainage plans, lidar or 2024 flood log used. Shows low-lying ground; it does not model where water goes on the surface. [13, metadata]
seti/elektro_podstancii.geojson289ODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributors; DEWA and DM standards cited from open documents (DM marks them Open Data, DEWA states no licence); numbers calculated by usToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. SUBSTITUTE LOAD DENSITIES: DEWA publishes no W/m2 norms; residential calibrated to DEWA 2025 (52.6 kWh/day per customer, peak/average 1.59), non-residential 300 kWh/m2/yr. Substations placed by us; not the DEWA grid. [14, metadata]
seti/stroyki_nagruzka.geojson37DLD register: datadubai mirror, CC BY 4.0; OSM ODbL; DEWA and DM standards cited from open documents (DM marks them Open Data, DEWA states no licence); numbers calculated by usToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. CALCULATED: DLD units treated as apartments, 2.5 persons per unit, 50% (z05) and 100% (z10) occupancy; location is the district centre, so the nearest exit, pipe and substation are indicative. [15, metadata]
bezopasnost/doezd_zdaniya.geojson3,393ODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributorsstations from OpenStreetMap only, list incomplete; station list requested from the city. Travel time only; peak = moving with modelled traffic (upper bound), peak-priority = /1.4 (London study) [16, metadata]
bezopasnost/kamery_tipovye.geojson585ODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributorsCALCULATED: typical camera placement (roundabouts, major junctions, exits) plus OSM cameras; not the police layout; 50 m range, 360 deg view, line of sight blocked by building footprints, trees ignored [17, metadata]
bezopasnost/stancii.geojson8ODbL 1.0, © OpenStreetMap contributorsstations from OpenStreetMap only, list incomplete; station list requested from the city [18, metadata]

Traffic model outputs (block b)

SUMO 1.28 (EPL-2.0) on the OpenStreetMap network (ODbL); calculation ours [19, istochnik, licenziya]. 20 scenario files present; the list with captions is in section 5.1.

Attribution required on screen and in print

© OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL); © Overture Maps Foundation; RTA GTFS via MobilityDatabase; Dubai Police open data; Copernicus DEM: produced using Copernicus WorldDEM-30 © DLR e.V. 2010-2014 and © Airbus Defence and Space GmbH 2014-2018 provided under COPERNICUS by the European Union and ESA; all rights reserved [20, attribution] [21].

Dubai Pulse open data licence: what it allows and requires

ClauseWhat the licence saysWhat it means for this work
2.1Free, non-exclusive licence to use the data for commercial and non-commercial purposesThe twin, its maps, this passport and the video may be shown and sold [22] [4, s. 6, cl. 2.1]
3.5Work Product and Adapted Material may be sold, rented and licensedOur products built on the data may be sold [22] [4, s. 6, cl. 3.5]
3.2.1Credit the data creator, keep the copyright notice, link to the originalEvery page carries the data credits with links [22] [4, s. 6, cl. 3.2.1]
3.2.2Do not use the name of Dubai Pulse or the Government of Dubai in connection with the product, and do not associate the product with themNo “endorsed”, “in partnership” or logos of RTA, Dubai Police or the Government of Dubai; a non-affiliation line on every page [22] [4, s. 6, cl. 3.2.2]
3.3.1Adapted Material (translated or reworked data) is shared under the same licenceIf we hand over our derived incident or stop files as data, they go under the same terms [22] [4, s. 6, cl. 3.3.1]
3.6The source data itself may not be soldWe do not sell the original RTA GTFS or Dubai Police files, only the product [22] [4, s. 6, cl. 3.6]
2.3.1Data may not be presented in a misleading wayCalculated layers are labelled as calculated [22] [4, s. 6, cl. 2.3.1]

Two caveats

Required credits, used on every page: RTA GTFS via Dubai Pulse / MobilityDatabase (https://files.mobilitydatabase.org/mdb-3359/latest.zip); Dubai Police, traffic incidents, via Dubai Pulse (https://www.dubaipulse.gov.ae/dataset/c9263194-5ee3-4340-b7c0-3269b26acb43/resource/c3ece154-3071-4116-8650-e769d8416d88/download/traffic_incidents.csv) [23, metadata.istochnik] [24, metadata.istochnik]. Independent analysis on open data. Not endorsed by or affiliated with Dubai Municipality, RTA, DEWA or Dubai Police. [22]

Dubai Pulse does not open from our address; datasets that live only there (community boundaries, speed limits and radars, incidents after the archived copy) are not used [25, item 2].

2. Dubai standards used, with document and page

Water, sewerage, stormwater and transformer limits are covered by primary documents with page numbers. Trip generation rates, road design and electrical load densities are not published openly; the model uses stated substitutes [26, s. 1, 4].

Water supply, DEWA

ItemValueWhere
Consumption, apartments200-300 l/person/dayTable 1, p. 4 (same in DBC 2021, Table H.6, p. H 51) [27]
Consumption, villas250-350 l/person/dayTable 1, p. 4 [27]
Consumption, offices / shops45-60 l/person/dayTable 1, p. 4 [27]
Upper end of ranges not to be used without reasonp. 4 [27]
Peak factor1.25-1.3Table 2, p. 6 [27]
Distribution pipe diameters450, 300, 225, 150 mmTable 2, p. 6 [27]
Transmission pipe diameters1200, 900, 600 mmTable 2, p. 6 [27]
Maximum velocity, distribution / transmission1.0 / 1.5 m/sTable 2, p. 6 [27]
Minimum pressure, distribution / transmission1.0 / 1.5 barTable 2, p. 6 [27]
Minimum connection points2 (main and standby)Table 2, p. 6 [27]
Model checked with both points open, standby closed, main closed3 scenariosp. 6 [27]

Sewerage, Dubai Municipality

ItemValueWhere
Sewage flow as share of DEWA water consumptionabout 80 %p. 18 [28]
Default sewage per person280 l/dayp. 18 [28]
Peak factor, population above 5004.25 x (P/1000)^(-1/6)p. 21 [28]
Peak factor, up to 500 people5.0p. 21 [28]
Self-cleansing velocity at peaknot below 0.75 m/sp. 23 [28]
Maximum velocity2.5 m/sp. 23 [28]
Proportional depth d/D, pipes up to 500 mm0.50 to 0.70Table 3-4, p. 24 [28]
Proportional depth d/D, pipes 500-800 mm0.50 to 0.65-0.70Table 3-4, p. 24 [28]
Proportional depth d/D, pipes above 800 mm0.50 to 0.65Table 3-4, p. 24 [28]
Minimum slopes 150 / 200 / 250 / 315 / 400 / 500 mm7.50 / 5.00 / 3.75 / 2.70 / 2.05 / 1.55 mm/mTable 3-5, p. 25 [28]
Minimum gravity sewer diameter200 mmp. 29 [28]
Maximum invert depthabout 10-12 mp. 29 [28]

Stormwater, Dubai Municipality

ItemValueWhere
Design storm, residential development and local roads1 in 5 years, check 1 in 10Table 0-1, p. 29 [29]
Rainfall intensity by duration and return period (IDF)see table on the rain pageTable 0-2, p. 30 [29]
Method for small catchmentsrational, Q = C i Ap. 29, 36-37 [29]
Rational method limitcatchments up to 80 hap. 36 [29]
Runoff coefficient C, roofs / asphalt / concrete0.75-0.95 / 0.70-0.95 / 0.80-0.95Table 0-5, p. 38-39 [29]
Runoff coefficient C, apartment areas / private housing0.50-0.70 / 0.30-0.50Table 0-5, p. 38 [29]
Factor on C for 25 / 50 / 100-year storms (C x Cf not above 1.0)1.10 / 1.20 / 1.25Table 0-6, p. 39 [29]
Manning n for the network0.013p. 63 [29]
Velocity in pipes0.75 to 2.5 m/sp. 64 [29]
Minimum gravity stormwater pipe250 mmp. 95 [29]
Minimum cover over pipe1.2 mp. 95 [29]

Electricity, DEWA

ItemValueWhere
Maximum load at main panel, 1000 kVA transformer800 kWcl. 4.7.2, p. 46 (same in DBC 2021, Table G.15) [30]
Maximum load at main panel, 1500 kVA transformer1200 kWcl. 4.7.2, p. 46 [30]
Demand factordetermined by a qualified engineer, shown to DEWA for approvalcl. 4.7.2, p. 45 [30]
Substation must face a public road or sikka of at least 6.1 mcl. 11.3.1-11.3.2, p. 73-74 [30]
Load density norm (W/m2 or kW per apartment)not published in any open DEWA document we foundinternal research note 04, s. 3.1 and 4 [30]

DEWA facts used for calibration

ItemValueWhere
Peak demand 202511,391 MWbooklet, no page numbers [31]
Residential consumption 202519,252 GWhbooklet [31]
Residential customers 20251,003,334booklet [31]
Total consumption 202562,633 GWhbooklet [31]
Residential use per customer (our arithmetic: 19,252 GWh / 1,003,334 / 365)52.6 kWh/dayderived, internal research note 04, s. 3.1 [31]
Peak to average (our arithmetic: 11,391 MW / (62,633 GWh / 8,760 h))1.59derived, internal research note 04, s. 3.1 [31]

Traffic impact, RTA

ItemValueWhere
Traffic Impact Study requiredabove 150 trips in the peak hourArt. 4(b) [32]
TIS levels 1 / 2 / 3150-500 / 501-1500 / above 1500 peak-hour tripsArt. 6 [32]
Trips counted by the RTA Trip Generation and Parking Rates Manualmanual not published openly; rates in this model are substitutesArt. 1; internal research note 04, s. 3.4 and 4 [32]

Occupancy, Dubai Building Code

ItemValueWhere
Occupant load, offices: enclosed / open plan9.3 / 4.6 m2 per person (GA)p. B 35 (evacuation load, not residents) [33]
Persons per apartmentnot set by DBC or any open Dubai document we foundinternal research note 04, s. 3.5 and 4 [33]

Documents that are closed or not found

DocumentStatusWhere recorded
RTA Dubai Trip Generation and Parking Rates Manualnot published openlyinternal research note 04, s. 4 [26]
RTA Traffic Impact Studies Manualnot foundinternal research note 04, s. 4 [26]
RTA Geometric Design Manual for Dubai Roadsnot foundinternal research note 04, s. 4 [26]
DEWA load densities (W/m2 by building type)not found in any open fileinternal research note 04, s. 4 [26]
DEWA Distribution Substation Guidelines (11/0.4 kV)not foundinternal research note 04, s. 4 [26]
Development Control Regulations per plot (density, height)held per plot by master developersinternal research note 04, s. 4 [26]

DM marks the Sewerage and Stormwater guidelines as Open Data without stating reuse terms; DEWA documents carry no licence. Numbers are cited with document and page; the documents themselves are not redistributed (internal research note 04, s. 4). [26, s. 4]

3. Population is a range of 31,371 to 124,953 residents, and the pipeline of new units a range of 13,147 to about 46,210

ResidentsAreaSource
31,371community 681 Al Barsha South FourthDubai Statistics Center 2023 census Data [3]
about 95,000whole JVCpress 2025 Not verified [34]
124,953OSM polygon Al Barsha South 4 (way 1012040533, inside JVC)our count of apartments at full occupancy; apartments are counted above the podium only Calculated [4, s. 3, 3a]

The 2023 census does not see what was built after it: towers completed in 2024 to 2026 are not in the 31,371 Assumption [4, s. 3]. Whether the OSM polygon matches the boundary of community 681 is not checked Not verified [4, s. 3].

What the model uses

QuantityValueSource
Residents today, occupancy 0.5, buildings under construction excluded81,264Calculated [9, zhiteli]
Jobs today22,174Calculated [9, rabochie]
Apartments and villa units, physically, all footprints58,885Calculated [9, kvartiry]
Residents in the same OSM polygon Al Barsha South 4, occupancy 0.564,213Calculated [9, zhiteli_abs4_model]
Occupancy 0.5 kept until the second review0.5HQ decision [35]

Construction pipeline

Units under constructionSource
13,147 in 37 projectsDLD project register mirror, checked Data [5]
about 46,210aggregator, not reconciled with the register Vendor source [6]

The 2029 scenario adds 36 register projects with 13,019 units, placed at district centres (indicative location): a lower bound Calculated [9, proekty_08.niz]. Projects without coordinates are excluded: Capital One (DLD register, 128 units).

4. Assumptions by layer: what we chose where the data stops

Buildings

Height sourceBuildingsSource
estimated estimated by class2,862[2, height_source]
osm_levels OSM floor tag × floor height519[2, height_source]
osm_height OSM height tag7[2, height_source]
vneshniy_istochnik external source: CTBUH, konveyer/izvestnye_bashni.csv5[2, height_source]

Heights of 84.35 % of buildings are estimated (2,862 of 3,393, share from the data): floors by building class × floor height (tower 3.2 m, villa 3.5 m, commercial 4 m, other 3.5 m) Assumption [2, height_source, metadata.normy.ETAZH] [4, s. 2]. All facades are procedural by building type; hero-zone detail is typical appearance, not a survey HQ decision [35].

Visual detail

Detail in the hero zones (doors, canopies, AC units, utility cabinets, street furniture) is typical appearance modelled from public reference photos of Dubai, not a survey of specific buildings; no visual detail is presented as data HQ decision [35]. Hero zones: Hessa Street, the central roundabout, the tower block, a villa street.

Hero-zone asset list with licences

LibraryAssetLicenceUsed for
Poly Havenasphalt_02CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)asphalt of carriageways [36]
Poly Havenasphalt_04CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)asphalt of parking and service roads [36]
Poly Havenconcrete_pavers_02CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)sidewalk pavers, grey-beige (ref 08 Dubai_5) [36]
Poly Havenred_brick_paversCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)red pavers at plazas and entrances (ref 08 Bus stop, Churches sign) [36]
Poly Havenherringbone_concrete_tileCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)light herringbone pavers in villa yards and driveways [36]
Poly Havenhexagonal_concrete_pavingCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)park paths [36]
Poly Havengranite_tileCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)tower forecourt and lobby floor [36]
Poly Havenbrushed_concreteCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)kerbs, light concrete [36]
Poly Havenconcrete_wall_008CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)New Jersey barriers, parapets, kiosks [36]
Poly Havenconcrete_slab_wallCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)bridge girders and deck edges, board-formed concrete [36]
Poly Havenconcrete_wall_007CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)bridge piers, pier caps, retaining walls [36]
Poly Havenbeige_wall_001CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)plaster walls of villas and compound walls [36]
Poly Havenwhite_plaster_rough_01CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)white plaster, grain for facade atlas [36]
Poly Havendense_sandCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)desert sand verges and empty plots [36]
Poly Havencoast_sand_01CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)landscaped sand strips [36]
Poly Havenleafy_grassCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)dry lawn edges (spare) [36]
Poly Havengravel_floorCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)road base course in the street section [36]
Poly Havenrocky_gravelCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)decorative gravel beds [36]
Poly Havengravel_floorCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)tower roofs: gravel ballast over membrane (typical) [36]
Poly Havensandy_gravelCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)road sub-base in the street section [36]
Poly Havenbrown_planks_03CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)benches and pergolas [36]
Poly Havenpainted_metal_shutterCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)shop roller shutters on ground floors [36]
Poly Havenrectangular_facade_tilesCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)podium cladding of some towers [36]
ambientCGGrass004CC0 1.0 (https://docs.ambientcg.com/license/)irrigated lawns, bright green (Poly Haven grasses are dry) [36]
Poly Havenpotted_plant_04CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)potted aloe at tower entrances [36]
Poly Havenpotted_plant_01CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)potted shrub at lobby (decimated) [36]
Poly Havenshrub_03CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)shrubs in entrance planters and villa yards [36]
Poly Havenshrub_04CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)shrubs in planting beds [36]
Poly Havenanthurium_botany_01CC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)foliage in entrance planters [36]
Poly Havenkloofendal_43d_clear_pureskyCC0 1.0 (https://polyhaven.com/license)clear sky for previews (lighting only, previews are not bakes) [36]
extensions.blender.orgsapling_tree_gen 0.3.7kod GPL-2.0+ (Blender Foundation); geometriya, sozdannaya generatorom, nashaleafy trees (neem/ghaf by type): trunk and branches [36]
built by us (block e)fasad_atlasour own work, no third-party rightsfacade bay atlas: windows, frames, spandrels, balcony doors, shopfronts; plaster grain from Poly Haven white_plaster_rough_01 [36]
built by us (block e)lyukour own work, no third-party rightsmanhole cover pattern, typical [36]
built by us (block e)listvaour own work, no third-party rightspalm frond and hedge leaf colour with alpha [36]
built by us (block e)rekvizitour own work, no third-party rightslamps, traffic signals, signs, barriers, benches, bins, AC units, doors and handles, gates, mailboxes, palms, cars, mannequins, substation kiosk, cabinets, manholes [36]
built by us (block e)zdaniyaour own work, no third-party rightstower and villa facades by type over OSM/Overture footprints and block (a) heights [36]

Blender material list with licences

LibraryAssetLicenceLink
polyhavenasphalt_02CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/asphalt_02 [37]
polyhaveninterlocking_concrete_paversCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/interlocking_concrete_pavers [37]
polyhavenred_brick_paversCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/red_brick_pavers [37]
polyhavenconcrete_floor_02CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/concrete_floor_02 [37]
polyhavenwhite_plaster_rough_01CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/white_plaster_rough_01 [37]
polyhavenbeige_wall_001CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/beige_wall_001 [37]
polyhavenconcrete_wall_008CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/concrete_wall_008 [37]
polyhavenclay_roof_tiles_02CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/clay_roof_tiles_02 [37]
polyhavenconcrete_floor_worn_001CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/concrete_floor_worn_001 [37]
polyhavenleafy_grassCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/leafy_grass [37]
polyhavendirtCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/dirt [37]
polyhavenexcavated_soil_wallCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/excavated_soil_wall [37]
polyhavenpalm_tree_barkCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/palm_tree_bark [37]
ambientcgGround088CC0 1.0 (docs.ambientcg.com/license)https://ambientcg.com/view?id=Ground088 [37]
polyhavenaerial_sandCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/aerial_sand [37]
ambientcgGround097CC0 1.0 (docs.ambientcg.com/license)https://ambientcg.com/view?id=Ground097 [37]
polyhavenqwantani_morning_pureskyCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/qwantani_morning_puresky [37]
polyhavenqwantani_afternoon_pureskyCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/qwantani_afternoon_puresky [37]
polyhavenkloofendal_43d_clear_pureskyCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/kloofendal_43d_clear_puresky [37]
polyhavenjacaranda_treeCC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/jacaranda_tree [37]
polyhavenshrub_04CC0 1.0 (polyhaven.com/license)https://polyhaven.com/a/shrub_04 [37]
our own work, no third-party rightsour own work, no third-party rightsblender/sobrat_scenu.py [37]
our own work, no third-party rightsour own work, no third-party rightsblender/sobrat_scenu.py [37]
our own work, no third-party rightsour own work, no third-party rightsblender/sobrat_scenu.py [37]
our own work, no third-party rightsour own work, no third-party rightsblender/sobrat_scenu.py [37]
our own work, no third-party rightsour own work, no third-party rightsblender/sobrat_scenu.py [37]
our own work, no third-party rightsour own work, no third-party rightsblender/sobrat_scenu.py [37]
our own work, no third-party rightsour own work, no third-party rightsblender/sobrat_scenu.py [37]

Screen textures: three Poly Haven images under CC0 (asphalt, concrete pavers, herringbone pavement); colour retinted on screen, image unchanged [38].

Base layers (block a)

LayerAssumption
granica.geojsonOSM outline, not the official DM community boundary (presumably Al Barsha South Fourth, 681; Dubai Pulse not reachable from our address) [9, sloi.granica.geojson]
zdaniya.geojsonheights and floors without a tag set by building class; class by footprint area for building=yes; residents and jobs by the rules in the data passport; construction state from OSM construction tags [9, sloi.zdaniya.geojson]
dorogi.geojsonlanes without a tag: residential 2, service roads and ramps 1 or 2, major roads by class median; speed by class median or a table [9, sloi.dorogi.geojson]
ostanovki.geojsonservice calendar 29.08–31.12.2025; weekday = Monday [9, sloi.ostanovki.geojson]
marshruty.geojsonone most frequent shape per route and direction, clipped to a 1 km buffer [9, sloi.marshruty.geojson]
proisshestviya.geojsoncategories translated by us; points within a 300 m buffer [9, sloi.proisshestviya.geojson]
relief.tifsurface model captured 2010–2015, error up to 4 m, used as a backdrop only [9, sloi.relief.tif]
stroyki.geojsoncoordinates = district centre; floors flagged; unit counts only for the 37 DLD projects [9, sloi.stroyki.geojson]
taz.geojson500 m grid; external zones at the network edge, weight = lanes × class [9, sloi.taz.geojson]
od.csvtrip rates are our assumption, in the order of magnitude of recon report 04, s. 3.4 [9, sloi.od.csv]
od_2029.csvrecon-08 projects placed in the zone of the district centre (indicative location); lower bound [9, sloi.od_2029.csv]
od_2029_verh.csvProperty Finder units by the DLD median (our assumption); upper bound [9, sloi.od_2029_verh.csv]

Largest single assumption of the building layer: 178 towers tagged in OSM with 1 to 2 floors are treated as default tagging; the tag is dropped and floors estimated Assumption [4, s. 2].

Traffic (block b)

Demand matrix of block (a), taz.geojson / od.csv (gravity model, see data passport); zone edges are streets inside each zone, external zones at the nearest network edges; routes by duarouter with en-route rerouting Assumption [19, dopushchenie]

Networks and safety layers (block c)

LayerAssumption
seti/voda_trubyToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. CALCULATED NETWORK, not the DEWA network: pipes laid along streets and sized to DEWA 2023 criteria for today's load at 50% occupancy; inlet 1.5 bar; terrain ignored. City data will replace it. [10, dopushchenie]
seti/kanal_trubyToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. CALCULATED NETWORK, not the DM sewer: gravity tree along streets to one assumed outfall, sized to DM 2024 guidelines for today's load at 50% occupancy. City data will replace it. [11, dopushchenie]
seti/livnevka_trubyCALCULATED NETWORK, not the DM stormwater system: pipes along streets, catchments up to 80 ha, sized to the DM 2024 1-in-5-year storm. Pipe capacity check of a synthesised network against design rainfall; it does not model where water goes on the surface. [12, dopushchenie]
seti/nizinyLow-lying spots in the open Copernicus GLO-30 surface model (30 m, vertical error up to 4 m, captured 2010-2015). No drainage plans, lidar or 2024 flood log used. Shows low-lying ground; it does not model where water goes on the surface. [13, dopushchenie]
seti/elektro_podstanciiToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. SUBSTITUTE LOAD DENSITIES: DEWA publishes no W/m2 norms; residential calibrated to DEWA 2025 (52.6 kWh/day per customer, peak/average 1.59), non-residential 300 kWh/m2/yr. Substations placed by us; not the DEWA grid. [14, dopushchenie]
seti/stroyki_nagruzkaToday's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects. CALCULATED: DLD units treated as apartments, 2.5 persons per unit, 50% (z05) and 100% (z10) occupancy; location is the district centre, so the nearest exit, pipe and substation are indicative. [15, dopushchenie]
bezopasnost/doezd_zdaniyastations from OpenStreetMap only, list incomplete; station list requested from the city. Travel time only; peak = moving with modelled traffic (upper bound), peak-priority = /1.4 (London study) [16, dopushchenie]
bezopasnost/kamery_tipovyeCALCULATED: typical camera placement (roundabouts, major junctions, exits) plus OSM cameras; not the police layout; 50 m range, 360 deg view, line of sight blocked by building footprints, trees ignored [17, dopushchenie]
bezopasnost/stanciistations from OpenStreetMap only, list incomplete; station list requested from the city [18, dopushchenie]

5. Method: how each layer is calculated

5.1 Traffic (SUMO)

Network: OpenStreetMap through Overpass (snapshot 2026-10-08T23:00:01Z), cut to the district outline plus 1,000 m; 3,413 edges, 46 roundabouts, 2 signals [39, kontur, reber, kolec, svetoforov].

Demand: gravity matrix of block (a) → od2trips → duarouter; morning peak 07:00-08:00, mode mikro [19, okno_chasy, rezhim]. Trip rates are substitutes for the closed RTA manual Substitute [26, s. 3.4].

Red threshold: speedRelative < 0.5 red, < 0.75 yellow, else green; peak-hour mean weighted by vehicle-seconds [19, porog].

ScenarioCaption (field opisanie_en)Trips out of JVC, peak hourRed edgesVehicles not insertedSource
bazademand at DSC 2023 census level, through-traffic 25 %4,83026324[19, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
baza-m1-t025Second frame of the presentation. HQ decision [35] estimated occupancy: outbound peak demand 9.9k veh/h, 4.6k leave the district within the hour; queues form on the arterials beyond the exits (Al Khail 4→3 lanes, SMBZ ramp merges); arterial geometry from OSM; RTA interchange drawings would refine this9,887940226[40, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
baza-m1stress test: full through-traffic estimate (4× baseline through-traffic, our arithmetic on the multipliers). HQ decision [35] stress: full through-traffic estimate (4× baseline)9,8871,19322,687[41, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
baza-x2full occupancy (twice the estimate), through-traffic 100 %: upper bound19,7742,03228,993[42, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
baza-vecherdemand at DSC 2023 census level, through-traffic 25 %, evening peak 17-182,920188234[43, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
baza-m1-vecherstress: full through-traffic estimate (4× baseline), evening peak 17-185,97783228,755[44, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-niz-p2029, 37 registered DLD projects at census-level demand: +1.0k outbound veh/h, 233 road segments red for the first time (seed-to-seed noise: 25–40) vs base5,835477159[45, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-verh-p2029, all announced projects at census-level demand: +2.2k outbound veh/h, 371 road segments red for the first time (seed-to-seed noise: 25–40) vs base7,07062044[46, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-niz2029, 37 registered DLD projects at estimated occupancy: +2.1k outbound veh/h, 299 road segments red for the first time (seed-to-seed noise: 117–130) vs today11,9441,154809[47, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-verh2029, all announced projects at estimated occupancy: +4.6k outbound veh/h, 479 road segments red for the first time (seed-to-seed noise: 117–130) vs today14,4711,3612,037[48, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
16-04-202416 Apr 2024 storm: base demand, wet pavement (speed -15 %, capacity about -20 %, FHWA ranges), no documented JVC street closures4,83032918[49, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
razvyazki-rtafour upgraded access points (capacity x2) at the exits that congest first in the base model; RTA has not published the locations4,830257100[50, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-niz-p-vecher2029, 37 registered DLD projects at census-level demand: +0.5k outbound veh/h, 77 road segments red for the first time vs base, evening peak 17-183,399237675[51, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-niz-stress-vecherstress: 2029 registered projects with full through-traffic estimate (4× baseline): +1.0k outbound veh/h, 231 road segments red for the first time vs stress today, evening peak 17-186,95898529,913[52, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-niz-stressstress: 2029 registered projects with full through-traffic estimate (4× baseline): +2.1k outbound veh/h, 336 road segments red for the first time vs stress today11,9441,43323,986[53, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-niz-vecher2029, 37 registered DLD projects at estimated occupancy: +1.0k outbound veh/h, 213 road segments red for the first time (seed-to-seed noise: 62–103) vs today, evening peak 17-186,9589005,282[54, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-verh-stressstress: 2029 all announced projects with full through-traffic estimate (4× baseline): +4.6k outbound veh/h, 433 road segments red for the first time vs stress today14,4711,53925,360[55, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
2029-verh-vecher2029, all announced projects at estimated occupancy: +2.2k outbound veh/h, 385 road segments red for the first time (seed-to-seed noise: 62–103) vs today, evening peak 17-188,1621,1098,241[56, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
baza-m1-t025-vecherestimated occupancy: outbound peak demand 6.0k veh/h, 3.0k leave the district within the hour; queues form on the arterials beyond the exits (SMBZ ramp merges, Dana Road ramps); arterial geometry from OSM; RTA interchange drawings would refine this, evening peak 17-185,9777493,325[57, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]
verh-125kpopulation 125k (top of the range, district x1.54): outbound peak demand 15.2k veh/h, 3.5k leave the district within the hour; exits saturate first at Hessa (v10, v12, v11) and Al Khail (v03, v06)15,2081,5972,476[58, schet, poezdok_po_vidu]

2029 against today: raw counts with the model noise beside them

Method: SUMO micro runs of the full peak hour, compared scenario against base; the noise column is the spread of the same count between runs of the base that differ only in the random seed [59, s. 2]. The live tower service uses a different method (meso runs with common random numbers) and its counts are not comparable with this table.

Scenario (micro run) vs baseEdges red for the first time (raw, micro run)Same count from changing the random seed onlyOutbound demand added, veh/hLeft the district within the hour, veh/hCould not enter the networkSource
2029-niz vs baza-m1-t025299117–130 (3 seeds against seed 42)2,0574,583 vs 4,630809 vs 226[47, sravnenie] [7, 2029-niz, baza-m1-t025]
2029-niz-p vs baza23325–40 (4 seeds against seed 42)1,0053,615 vs 3,727159 vs 24[45, sravnenie] [7, 2029-niz-p, baza]
2029-niz-p-vecher vs baza-vecher77not measured4793,132 vs 2,810675 vs 234[51, sravnenie] [7, 2029-niz-p-vecher, baza-vecher]
2029-niz-vecher vs baza-m1-t025-vecher21362–103 (3 seeds against seed 42)9812,814 vs 2,9805,282 vs 3,325[54, sravnenie] [7, 2029-niz-vecher, baza-m1-t025-vecher]
2029-verh vs baza-m1-t025479117–130 (3 seeds against seed 42)4,5843,599 vs 4,6302,037 vs 226[48, sravnenie] [7, 2029-verh, baza-m1-t025]
2029-verh-p vs baza37125–40 (4 seeds against seed 42)2,2403,909 vs 3,72744 vs 24[46, sravnenie] [7, 2029-verh-p, baza]
2029-verh-vecher vs baza-m1-t025-vecher38562–103 (3 seeds against seed 42)2,1852,832 vs 2,9808,241 vs 3,325[56, sravnenie] [7, 2029-verh-vecher, baza-m1-t025-vecher]

Nothing is subtracted: the raw count and the noise of the comparison scenario stand side by side [59, s. 2].

The 2029 projects add queues inside the district, not cars leaving it: outbound demand grows by 2,057 vehicles an hour, vehicles leaving the district within the hour are 4,583 against 4,630 today, and 809 vehicles could not enter the network against 226 today Calculated [7, 2029-niz, baza-m1-t025] [59, s. 2].

How many cars actually leave JVC in the modelled peak hour

ScenarioWant to leave JVC, veh/hLeft the district within the hour, veh/hLeft the whole model network within the hour, veh/hSource
baza4,8173,7273,002[7, baza.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
baza-vecher2,9212,8102,241[7, baza-vecher.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
16-04-20244,8173,4352,774[7, 16-04-2024.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
razvyazki-rta4,8173,8302,989[7, razvyazki-rta.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-niz-p5,8383,6153,012[7, 2029-niz-p.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-niz-p-vecher3,4043,1322,385[7, 2029-niz-p-vecher.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-verh-p7,1013,9093,162[7, 2029-verh-p.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
baza-m1-t0259,9034,6303,614[7, baza-m1-t025.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
baza-m1-t025-vecher5,9782,9802,195[7, baza-m1-t025-vecher.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
verh-125k15,1893,5292,713[7, verh-125k.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-niz11,9554,5833,505[7, 2029-niz.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-niz-vecher6,9632,8142,030[7, 2029-niz-vecher.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-verh14,5093,5992,558[7, 2029-verh.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-verh-vecher8,1532,8322,156[7, 2029-verh-vecher.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
baza-m19,8712,5761,543[7, baza-m1.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
baza-m1-vecher5,9782,2941,547[7, baza-m1-vecher.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-niz-stress11,9542,6471,496[7, 2029-niz-stress.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-niz-stress-vecher6,9592,3241,577[7, 2029-niz-stress-vecher.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
2029-verh-stress14,4772,6131,587[7, 2029-verh-stress.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]
baza-x219,7762,6691,648[7, baza-x2.vyezd_iz_rayona, vyezd_izmereno]

Merge capacity calibrated to HCM per-lane capacity and the RTA bridge figure of 3,200 veh/h; before calibration the model let at most 2.8k veh/h leave the district. Calculated [26, s. 3.4] [60] [59, merge capacity]. After calibration the most that leaves the district within the hour in any scenario above is 4,630 vehicles; the rest of the queue stands on the main roads beyond the exits [7, vyezd_iz_rayona.vyehali_za_chas] [59, s. 1].

The model is not calibrated against traffic counts (none are open); "tower" scenarios are shown as before and after on the same model, not as a forecast of flows [61, s. 3.4] [62].

Live “place a tower” service: response time

6 paired meso runs in parallel (libsumo), common random numbers; HTTP on 127.0.0.1; base scenario baza, utro peak; measured 2026-10-09 08:38 on Apple M4 Pro, 14 cores, 48 GB (sysctl), idle: no other SUMO runs; service start 5.8 s Calculated [63].

RequestRepeatsMedian, sMax, sSource
bashnya 40 floors at Hessa v1255.365.47[63, zaprosy]
bashnya 80 floors x 6 at Al Khail v0656.356.41[63, zaprosy]
all 2029 projects56.146.62[63, zaprosy]

This table is about response time only; the traffic verdict of one tower is in the floor series below [63].

Experiment: one tower from 10 to 90 floors, and a cluster of 40-floor towers, on one free plot

Plot 25.064408, 55.216359 (square 39 x 39 m, residential); base baza (census level, through-traffic 25 %), morning peak 07-08, SUMO meso. calculated: people and trips by block (a) norms, routes and noise of the SUMO meso model; not counted traffic; an experiment for the passport, not a presentation scene Calculated [64, uchastok, baza, dopushchenie_en].

one tower of 40 floors: within noise; not measurable up to 90 floors; 6 towers of 40 floors nearby: measurable [64, vyvod_en, klaster_en].

FloorsApartmentsCar trips in the peak hourEffect on the tower's exits, vehicle-hours ± standard errorAbove noiseEdges newly redSource
10879-1.33 ± 3.32no0[64, ryad[0]]
20232230.34 ± 3.61no0[64, ryad[1]]
30377374.34 ± 5.09no0[64, ryad[2]]
40522513.47 ± 4.03no1[64, ryad[3]]
50668650.16 ± 3.52no1[64, ryad[4]]
60813795.37 ± 3.14no2[64, ryad[5]]
70958947.57 ± 2.68yes4[64, ryad[6]]
801,1031089.46 ± 3.3yes5[64, ryad[7]]
901,2481223.68 ± 3.66no5[64, ryad[8]]

steps above 2 standard errors: 70, 80 floors; the threshold needs every higher step above noise too [64, primechanie_en].

Towers of 40 floorsApartmentsCar trips in the peak hourEffect on the towers' exits, vehicle-hours ± standard errorAbove noiseEdges newly redSource
1522513.47 ± 4.03no1[64, klaster[0]]
21,0441024.13 ± 5.25no5[64, klaster[1]]
42,0882046.99 ± 3.96no6[64, klaster[2]]
63,13230623.07 ± 6.01yes13[64, klaster[3]]
84,17640825.87 ± 6.93yes24[64, klaster[4]]

Measure and threshold: effect = mean paired change of summed timeLoss (vehicle-hours) on the approaches of the exits that carry at least 20 % of the tower's outbound trips (shortest path at speed limits); standard error over 6 pairs of meso runs with common random numbers (seeds 42-47); above noise = effect > 2 standard errors and > 30 s Assumption [64, mera] [59, tower service].

Where the cluster towers stand: tower 1 on the plot; tower k at the nearest free plot to tower 1 (rings every 5 m, 8 m along the ring, from east counter-clockwise); footprint 39 x 39 m plus 3 m clear of buildings, roads, sidewalks, hero zones and towers already placed; places chosen before the runs Assumption [64, pravilo_klastera] [59, tower service].

Nearest exit by straight line: nearest exit by straight line (v13 Hessa Street) is reported per step: in the service meso the base routes are fixed by duarouter and no base or tower route uses the v13 approach streets, so its effect is 0 by model construction, not by traffic Assumption [64, mera_v13] [59, tower service].

False alarms: v07 (Al Khail Road) can come out beyond noise; with 19 exits at 2 standard errors about one false alarm per request is expected Assumption [64, lozhnaya_trevoga] [59, tower service].

Why one tower differs between bases

One residential tower of 40 floors on the plot of the floor series, answered by the live service on each base. Method: meso service, 6 pairs of runs with common random numbers; effect on the exits that carry at least 20 % of the tower's trips, beyond noise when it exceeds 2 standard errors Calculated [64, mera].

BaseDistrict multiplierThrough-traffic multiplierTower occupancy taken fromTower residentsTower car trips in the peakEffect, vehicle-hours ± standard errorVerdictSource
baza (census level)0.48850.25census level (× 0.4885)319 (computed before multiplier: 652)513.47 ± 4.03within noise[65, zhiteli_bashni, poezdok_bashni, vyezdy_bashni]
baza-m1-t025 (estimated occupancy)10.25census level (× 0.4885)319 (computed before multiplier: 652)5137.88 ± 12.22beyond noise[66, zhiteli_bashni, poezdok_bashni, vyezdy_bashni]
baza-m1-t025 (estimated occupancy)10.25estimated occupancy (× 1)65210437.25 ± 6.69beyond noise[67, zhiteli_bashni, poezdok_bashni, vyezdy_bashni]

On the census-level base the network has room and one tower stays within noise; on the estimated-occupancy base the network is saturated and the same tower becomes measurable. The tower's own trips also scale with the district multiplier. On screen the change of base is made openly and captioned HQ decision [35].

Rule for every comparison of bases: the caption lists everything that changes between them: residents of the district, residents of the project, through-traffic HQ decision [35].

5.2 Water supply

No DEWA network plan is open. We laid pipes along OSM streets (179.3 km, 2,629 pipes, 1,763 nodes), connected each of 3,393 buildings to the nearest street, and sized diameters from the DEWA series until velocity and pressure met DEWA Table 2 [27, Table 2, p. 6]; hydraulics in WNTR (EPANET 2.2) Calculated [68].

Demand: residents of block (a) × consumption at the middle of the DEWA ranges (apartments 250, villas 300 l/person/day; worker 52.5) [27, Table 1, p. 4]; peak hour [27, Table 2, p. 6]. Sized for scenario baza-m1; inlet pressure 1.5 bar; terrain ignored Assumption [69].

5.3 Sewerage

Gravity tree along the same streets to one assumed outfall; flow 80 % of water [28, p. 18], peak factor 4.25·(P/1000)^(−1/6) [28, p. 21]; red when d/D exceeds the DM limit by diameter [28, Table 3-4, p. 24]; 12 pump stations where the invert is deeper than about 10 m [28, p. 29] Calculated [68, kanal_nasosnyh].

Today's network is sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects HQ decision [35].

ScenarioResidentsWater: red nodes with one supply point closed (DEWA check, p. 6)Sewer: red pipesSubstations: redSource
baza39,697000[68, scenarii.baza] [70, scenarii.baza.red]
baza-m181,264000[68, scenarii.baza-m1] [70, scenarii.baza-m1.red]
2029-niz-p48,366057[68, scenarii.2029-niz-p] [70, scenarii.2029-niz-p.red]
2029-verh-p59,0050449[68, scenarii.2029-verh-p] [70, scenarii.2029-verh-p.red]
2029-niz99,0091,65513110[68, scenarii.2029-niz] [70, scenarii.2029-niz.red]
2029-verh120,7891,76321411[68, scenarii.2029-verh] [70, scenarii.2029-verh.red]

5.4 Stormwater drainage (complete method)

The network is synthesised by us along OpenStreetMap streets to the Dubai Municipality standard. We do not have DM drainage plans [71, s. 3.4] [72].

Standards applied

RuleValueWhere
Design storm, residential and local roads1 in 5 years; network checked at 1 in 10[29, Table 0-1, p. 29]
Rainfall intensityDubai IDF by duration and return period[29, Table 0-2, p. 30]
Flowrational method Q = C·i·A/360; duration = time of concentration, not below 10 min[29, p. 36-37]
Catchment limit for the rational method80 ha[29, p. 36]
Runoff coefficient: roofs 0.85, asphalt 0.825 (middles of DM ranges), other ground 0.2 (our choice of row)mean C 0.383[29, Table 0-5, p. 38-39] [73, C_sredniy]
Factor on C for 25 and 100-year storms1.10 and 1.25, C·Cf ≤ 1[29, Table 0-6, p. 39]
Manning n0.013[29, p. 63]
Velocity at full borenot below 0.75 m/s[29, p. 64]
Minimum pipe; minimum cover250 mm; 1.2 m[29, p. 95]
Diameter seriesnominal series of DM Sewerage Table 3-5 (no series found in the stormwater guideline) Substitute[28, Table 3-5, p. 25]

DM Table 0-2, Dubai rainfall intensity, mm/h [29, Table 0-2, p. 30]

Return period, years5 min15 min30 min60 min120 min360 min1440 min
1 in 259.9037.1523.5713.878.183.381.00
1 in 597.4163.3441.6825.3515.116.221.93
1 in 10118.0080.4154.7234.2220.578.442.71
1 in 25133.6699.2271.3246.5228.3111.583.90
1 in 50169.22125.6190.3058.8935.8514.654.94
1 in 100209.20155.29111.6372.8144.3218.126.10

How the diameters were chosen

The district with a 150 m buffer (1,224.3 ha) is split into 18 catchments of at most 80 ha (largest 79.9 ha), each with an assumed outfall; roofs cover 11.4 % and asphalt 17.5 % Calculated [73]. Each pipe is the smallest diameter whose full-bore capacity carries both the 1-in-5-year design storm and the 1-in-10-year check (DM gives no proportional depth for stormwater; the 10-year check is taken strictly, without surcharge) Assumption [72, sizing]. Slope gives at least 0.75 m/s at full bore and follows the GLO-30 terrain trend where steeper.

Diameter, mm250315400500600700800900100012001400160018002000
Length, km5.844.687.9213.2712.1610.9598.177.2511.217.544.933.247.6

1,745 pipes, 113.8 km; maximum depth 7.53 m; longest time of concentration 76.2 min; 77 pipes of 2,000 mm exceed 2.5 m/s, where a box culvert outside the DM pipe series would be needed Calculated [73].

Storms it was checked against

Storm (DM Table 0-2)Daily depth (1440-min intensity × 24 h, our arithmetic)Pipes over capacitykmShare of lengthMedian loadCatchments with redSource
1 in 5 years1.93 × 24 = 46.32 mm000 %64.2 %0 of 18[73, periody.t5]
1 in 10 years2.71 × 24 = 65.04 mm000 %82.5 %0 of 18[73, periody.t10]
1 in 25 years3.90 × 24 = 93.6 mm1,32092.881.6 %113.5 %18 of 18[73, periody.t25]
1 in 100 years6.10 × 24 = 146.4 mm1,632112.1398.6 %201.8 %18 of 18[73, periody.t100]

Load = design flow / full-bore capacity; red above 100 %. The 1-in-5 and 1-in-10 storms produce no red by construction. The shape of the 16.04.2024 storm within the day is unknown, so the event is compared by its daily total, not run as a separate storm [72] [71, s. 2].

Low-lying spots: depression filling on Copernicus GLO-30 after a median filter of about 150 m; 49 spots, 9 inside JVC (191 ha); rule: area from 0.5 ha, fill depth from 1 m Assumption [73, niziny]. No drainage plans, lidar or 2024 incident log were used; water depths and durations were not computed; not compared with the April 2024 extent, which is not published as a raster [71, s. 3.3, 3.9].

5.5 Electricity

DEWA publishes no load density per m² or per apartment [26, s. 3.1]. Residential load is calibrated to DEWA 2025 residential use per customer and the city peak-to-average ratio [31] [26, s. 3.1], giving 23.18 W/m² on average and 36.86 W/m² at peak Substitute [70, k_zhilya_vt_m2_sred, k_zhilya_vt_m2_pik]. Non-residential: 300 kWh/m² a year Substitute [74].

289 substations placed by us (271 × 1000 kVA, 36 × 1500 kVA, 325 MVA); red above 800 kW per 1000 kVA and 1200 kW per 1500 kVA [30, cl. 4.7.2, p. 46], amber from 80 %; power flow in pandapower Calculated [70].

5.6 Ambulance and fire response

Travel time along the OSM road graph from the nearest known station to each building; night at the speed limit, peak at the modelled traffic speed of the baseline SUMO run (upper bound); dispatch and turnout not included Calculated [75]. Stations mapped in OSM: الدفاع المدني القوز; Civil Defence - Jebel Ali Fire Station; Al Sufouh Ambulance Service; Global Village Ambulance Station; Al Barsha Fire Station; Al Marsa Fire Station; Dubai Corporation for Ambulance Services; unnamed (way/1127334014) [76, spisok_stanciy].

Ambulance: station list requested from the city. The layer shows time from the nearest known station and is not coloured red while the list is incomplete HQ decision [35].

ServiceScenarioMedian, min95th percentile, minBuildings above 8 minSource
Ambulancenoch7.979.61not coloured (station list incomplete)[76, scenarii.skoraya__noch]
Ambulancepik15.2420.28not coloured (station list incomplete)[76, scenarii.skoraya__pik]
Ambulancepik-prioritet10.8914.48not coloured (station list incomplete)[76, scenarii.skoraya__pik-prioritet]
Ambulance16-04-202418.1324.06not coloured (station list incomplete)[76, scenarii.skoraya__16-04-2024]
Firenoch6.918.5515.5 %[76, scenarii.pozharnye__noch]
Firepik11.2716.3184.2 %[76, scenarii.pozharnye__pik]
Fire16-04-20241319.1595.8 %[76, scenarii.pozharnye__16-04-2024]

Scenario 16.04.2024: speeds from the block (b) SUMO scenario 16-04-2024 (rain: speed factor n/a, headway 1.3 s after FHWA); off the SUMO network, peak speed × the class median ratio of 16.04 to peak Assumption [76, skorosti.16_04].

Scenario pik-prioritet (ambulance only): travel time in traffic divided by 1.4, a London figure for blue-light journeys (Poulton et al., arXiv 1812.03181), used as a substitute Substitute [75, pik-prioritet].

5.7 Camera blind spots

No open camera layout exists and OSM maps 0 cameras in JVC. Typical placement: 540 at junctions, 28 at roundabouts, 17 at district exits; a camera sees a street point within 50 m if no building footprint blocks the line Assumption. Coverage 48.2 % of 164.9 km of streets; 85.2 km without a camera; minimum 960 cameras for 95 % (greedy selection) Calculated [77]. Recognition of people's behaviour is not done and not offered [35].

5.8 Construction project cards

For the 37 register projects with unit counts (13,147 units) at occupancy 0.5: water 4,108 m³/day, peak electricity 19 MW, 2,629 car trips in the morning peak Calculated [78]. Traffic impact study thresholds of Resolution 603 [32, Art. 4(b), 6]: 33 projects below the 150-trip threshold; 4 projects at level 1 (150-500) [78, tis_z05].

Where each project's peak trips queue (scenario 2029-niz)

zone-level: block (a) matrix places each 2029 project in the zone of its block centre and mixes its trips with the zone's existing trips, so the queues are those of all peak-hour trips from the zone; time lost on an edge = time on the edge from SUMO exit times minus length at the speed limit; share = lost time on the edge / total travel time of those trips calculated; project positions are block centres, not plots; the 2029 run uses estimated occupancy (district x1, through-traffic 0.25); not counted traffic Calculated [79, metod_en, dopushchenie_en]

Zone-level: a project's trips cannot be separated from its zone in the demand matrix, so each row shows the queues of its zone HQ decision [35] [79, uroven].

ProjectZoneProjects in the zoneTrips from the zone in the peakWhere its trips queue (field stroka_en)Source
Sky Suites By Peace Homesz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Binghatti Amberhallz315695its peak trips queue on Qmasha St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Binghatti Rubyz024239its peak trips queue on Kaheel Blvd, Dana Rd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Palatium Residencesz294511its peak trips queue on 3 St, exit to Al Khail Rd (v06), Mayar Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Waref Residences By Sido Developmentz105681its peak trips queue on 12 St (v12), Dana Rd, 9 St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Skyhills Iii By Hrez202487its peak trips queue on exit to Al Khail Rd (v06), 10 St, 7 St (v06) (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Skyhills Ii By Hrez315695its peak trips queue on Qmasha St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
The Fifth Towerz024239its peak trips queue on Kaheel Blvd, Dana Rd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Aveline Residences By Citi Developersz024239its peak trips queue on Kaheel Blvd, Dana Rd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Oakyard Residencesz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Maison Elysee Iz234431its peak trips queue on Adham Blvd, Lolow St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Binghatti Circlez315695its peak trips queue on Qmasha St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Allura Residences By Citi Developersz105681its peak trips queue on 12 St (v12), Dana Rd, 9 St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Provenza Residencesz294511its peak trips queue on 3 St, exit to Al Khail Rd (v06), Mayar Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Lume Residencesz202487its peak trips queue on exit to Al Khail Rd (v06), 10 St, 7 St (v06) (zone-level)[79, proekty]
311 Boulevard By Bam Eskanz315695its peak trips queue on Qmasha St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Maison Elysee Iii By Pantheonz234431its peak trips queue on Adham Blvd, Lolow St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Avana Residences By Deca Real Estate Developmentz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Binghatti Ethereaz105681its peak trips queue on 12 St (v12), Dana Rd, 9 St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Azizi Rubyz143512its peak trips queue on Nashwan Blvd, Qmasha St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Pearl House Iv By Imtiazz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Berkeley Square By Prestige Onez315695its peak trips queue on Qmasha St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Tresora By Wadanz294511its peak trips queue on 3 St, exit to Al Khail Rd (v06), Mayar Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
One Sky Park By Imanz143512its peak trips queue on Nashwan Blvd, Qmasha St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Staxz143512its peak trips queue on Nashwan Blvd, Qmasha St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
The Boroughz171525its peak trips queue on 2 St, 9 St, 3 St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
368 Park Lnz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
The Autograph-I Seriesz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Avant Garde Residences Ii By Skylinez234431its peak trips queue on Adham Blvd, Lolow St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Mi Casa By London Gate Real Estate Developmentz024239its peak trips queue on Kaheel Blvd, Dana Rd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Auresta Towerz105681its peak trips queue on 12 St (v12), Dana Rd, 9 St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Floarea Skiesz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Oxford Covez105681its peak trips queue on 12 St (v12), Dana Rd, 9 St (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Alta View Skyhomesz088690its peak trips queue on Dana Rd, ramp to Kaheel Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Serenz By Danubez294511its peak trips queue on 3 St, exit to Al Khail Rd (v06), Mayar Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]
Q Gardens Lofts 2z234431its peak trips queue on Adham Blvd, Lolow St, Pantheon Blvd (zone-level)[79, proekty]

5.9 Presentation frames and render method

The scene is built by script from the same data files as the screen: building footprints and heights (a), roads (a), vehicles from the SUMO baseline trajectories (b), networks at calculated depth and diameter (c), hero zones; sun position for 16.10.2026. Renderer: Blender Cycles, OptiX denoising, adaptive sampling. Facades, balconies, fences, street furniture, vehicles and people are typical appearance, not a survey Assumption [80] [35].

CameraCaption on screen (in English)TypeResolutionSamplesSunSource
K01_proletFlight over JVCanimation, 1,200 frames at 30 fps1920×108012807:40[80, K01_prolet]
K02_hessa_pikHessa Street exit, morning peakstill3840×21601,02407:40[80, K02_hessa_pik]
K03_razrez_hessaStreet section, Hessa Streetstill3840×21601,02415:00[80, K03_razrez_hessa]
K03b_razrez_ulicyStreet section, inner street (tower block)still3840×21601,02415:00[80, K03b_razrez_ulicy]
K04_razrez_bashniTower section: floors and loadstill3840×21601,02415:00[80, K04_razrez_bashni]
K05_do_segodnyaToday: morning peakstill3840×216051207:40[80, K05_do_segodnya]
K06_posle_2029After: all 2029 projectsstill3840×216051207:40[80, K06_posle_2029]
K06b_odna_bashnyaOne tower: within model noise at 40 floors: the exits its cars use, v06 (Al Khail Road), v12 (Hessa Street), change by +3.5 vehicle-hours (noise 8.1); exits beyond noise elsewhere: v07 (with 19 exits at 2 standard errors about one false alarm is expected)still3840×216051207:40[80, K06b_odna_bashnya]
K06c_bashnya_t025Same tower at estimated occupancy: beyond model noise at 40 floors: the exits its cars use, v06 (Al Khail Road), v12 (Hessa Street), lose 37.9 more vehicle-hours in the peak hour (noise 24.4)still3840×216051207:40[80, K06c_bashnya_t025]
K07_dozhd_normaDesign storm: 5-year, 46 mmstill3840×216051215:00[80, K07_dozhd_norma]
K08_dozhd_16-04-202416 April 2024: 142 mm in 24 h at DXB; DM 1-in-100-year day: 146.4 mmstill3840×216051215:00[80, K08_dozhd_16-04-2024]
K09_kolcoJVC central circle and parkstill3840×21601,02415:00[80, K09_kolco]
K10_bashniTower block, street levelstill3840×21601,02407:40[80, K10_bashni]
K10h_most_hessaHessa Street bridge ramp, morning peakstill3840×21601,02407:40[80, K10h_most_hessa]
K10v_vhod_bashniTower entrancestill3840×21601,02415:00[80, K10v_vhod_bashni]
K11_villyVilla streetstill3840×21601,02407:40[80, K11_villy]
K12_obzorJVC overviewstill3840×21601,02415:00[80, K12_obzor]

Render time on a rented RTX 5090 is estimated, not measured: a test on the Apple M4 Pro at 5 % resolution and 16 samples, scaled linearly by pixels and samples and by the ratio of Blender Open Data medians (16,088.1 for RTX 5090 OptiX against 2,899.8 for M4 Pro, ratio 5.55) [81] [82, open_data, otnoshenie_5090_k_m4pro]. Upper bound 26 h Calculated [82, pereschet_09_10_08_20]. No final frame has been rendered yet.

6. Calibration: demand multipliers were set after the model stalled, and no flow is compared with a count

Both demand multipliers were chosen after the model, run on the calculated demand of block (a), came to a standstill. The district multiplier 0.4885 (file value 0.488545933066513) rests on the DSC 2023 census; the through-traffic multiplier 0.25 rests on the capacity of the network edges (above it, through traffic does not enter the network). This is calibration to capacity, not to traffic counts: no flow on any road has been compared with a measurement HQ decision [35] [19, mnozhiteli] [59, s. 4, 5].

ItemValueSource
District multiplier in the baseline run0.4885 (file value 0.488545933066513)[19, mnozhiteli.rayon]
Census 31,371 / 64,213 residents computed by block (a) in the same polygon0.4885 (our arithmetic); equals the multiplier of the run[3] [9, zhiteli_abs4_model]
Through-traffic multiplier0.25[19, mnozhiteli.tranzit]
Second frame of the presentation (baza-m1-t025), multipliers 1 / 0.25, captionestimated occupancy: outbound peak demand 9.9k veh/h, 4.6k leave the district within the hour; queues form on the arterials beyond the exits (Al Khail 4→3 lanes, SMBZ ramp merges); arterial geometry from OSM; RTA interchange drawings would refine this[40, opisanie_en, mnozhiteli] [35]

A model can match observed flows and still have wrong behaviour parameters, so scenario results are shown as before and after on one model [62].

7. Retrospective check: where the model turns red against where the city spent money

Rule: a city action counts as matched when at least one modelled exit from JVC to that road is red in the baseline morning peak (mean speed below 50 % of the limit) Assumption [83, status].

DateWhat the city didWhat the model gives (baseline, 07:00-08:00)Matched
21.10.2024RTA completed a 700 m two-lane bridge between Hessa Street and Al Khamila Street, 3,200 vehicles per hour, within the AED 700 million Al Khail Road project. [60]v09 entry: green, 246 veh/h, speed 0.894 of limit
v10 entry: red, 96 veh/h, speed 0.092 of limit
v11 entry: red, 431 veh/h, speed 0.322 of limit
v12 exit: red, 3,243 veh/h, speed 0.265 of limit
v13 exit: green, 953 veh/h, speed 0.969 of limit [83, k_doroge, status]
yes Calculated
19.04.2026RTA widened Hessa Street to 4 lanes in each direction between Sheikh Zayed Road and Al Khail Road, from 8,000 to 16,000 vehicles per hour. The OSM network of 08.10.2026 used by the model already has 4 to 5 lanes on Hessa Street. [84]same exits to Hessa Street as above [83, k_doroge, status]yes Calculated
21.10.2024Al Khail Road improvement project (AED 700 million) completed. [60]v03 entry: red, 97 veh/h, speed 0.09 of limit
v04 entry: green, 0 veh/h, speed 0.951 of limit
v05 exit: green, 1,050 veh/h, speed 0.856 of limit
v06 exit: red, 952 veh/h, speed 0.144 of limit
v07 exit: green, 518 veh/h, speed 0.893 of limit [83, k_doroge, status]
yes Calculated
06-09.2025RTA traffic enhancements at 40 locations, including JVC towards Hessa Street. [85]same exits to Hessa Street as above [83, k_doroge, status]yes Calculated
02.03.2025RTA and Dubai Holding signed an AED 6 billion agreement: four grade-separated access points for JVC, capacity doubled, travel time up to 70 % shorter. Locations not published. [86]locations not publishednot checked Not verified

After calibration the merges out of the district are not saturated: 136–606 vehicles an hour per lane against the HCM range of 1,800–2,200. Queues form on the arterials beyond the exits: Al Khail Road narrowing from 4 to 3 lanes (3,395 vehicles an hour at 42 % of the speed limit), the on-ramp merges onto Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road (about 2,900 vehicles an hour each), and a slip road narrowing from 4 to 1 lane(s) (OSM way 447602819, 1,793 vehicles an hour). This is where the RTA programme of AED 6 billion with four grade-separated access points is directed; without RTA interchange drawings and counts the model cannot be refined further Calculated [59, s. 6, arterials beyond the district] [86].

Dubai Police incidents (2023-03-09 to 2024-05-12): 603 of 1,661 lie within 50 m of red edges, while red edges are 20.1 % of the network length with data (our arithmetic) [7, proisshestvij_u_krasnyh, dolya_dliny_krasnaya]. This is not taken as evidence: red sits on the main roads, where there are more vehicles and therefore more incidents [59, s. 5].

8. Your standards vs your rain

A drainage network sized to the DM standard carries the design storm and is over full-bore capacity on 98.6 % of its length in the 1-in-100-year storm

We sized a stormwater network for JVC to the DM 1-in-5-year design storm and checked it at 1 in 10 years: 0 and 0 pipes over capacity. In the 1-in-100-year storm (146.4 mm a day by the DM table) 1,632 of 1,745 pipes are over full-bore capacity, 112.13 km of 113.8 km, 98.6 % of the length; median load 201.8 % Calculated [8, periody.t100] [73, periody.t100.trub_red].

The network is synthesised by us along OpenStreetMap streets to the DM standard. We do not have DM drainage plans. It shows what the standard itself allows for; it is not the built network of JVC [71, s. 3.4] [72].

The standard, the storm, and the table it sits in

46.32 mm
Design storm for residential areas and local roads: 1 in 5 years, per day
DM Table 0-1 (p. 29) sets the return period; Table 0-2 (p. 30) gives 1.93 mm/h for 1440 min; × 24 h = 46.32 mm (our arithmetic) [29, p. 29-30]
142 mm
Rain at Dubai International Airport in 24 hours, 16.04.2024
Dubai International Airport (DXB), 24-hour total, as reported by AP (quoted by JBA) and by the press [87] [88]; ECMWF gives 144 mm for the same station [89]
146.4 mm
1-in-100-year storm in the same DM table, per day
Table 0-2 (p. 30): 6.10 mm/h for 1440 min; × 24 h = 146.4 mm (our arithmetic) [29, Table 0-2, p. 30]

By daily depth, 142 mm is 3.07 times the residential design storm and 97 % of the 1-in-100-year storm (our arithmetic on the numbers above). Hourly rainfall for Dubai is not published as open data; short bursts (5 to 60 min) of 16.04.2024 were not checked (internal research note 07, s. 2 and 3.1). [71]

0 40 80 120 160 mm per 24 h 241 in 2 yr 46.321 in 5 yr 65.041 in 10 yr 93.61 in 25 yr 118.561 in 50 yr 146.41 in 100 yr DM Table 0-2, 1440-minute intensity × 24 h, by return period 16.04.2024 at DXB: 142 mm in 24 h

Bars: daily depth = 1440-minute intensity of DM Table 0-2 × 24 h [29, Table 0-2, p. 30]. Marked line: 142 mm at DXB [87]. Other windows of the same event: 119 mm, DXB, 16 April only [90]; 164 mm, DXB, whole event [91]; 168 mm, Jumeirah, 24 hours, return period about 125 years by the vendor's estimate Vendor source [92].

The same network, storm by storm

Storm (DM Table 0-2)Daily depth (1440-min intensity × 24 h, our arithmetic)Pipes over capacitykmShare of lengthMedian loadCatchments with redSource
1 in 5 years1.93 × 24 = 46.32 mm000 %64.2 %0 of 18[73, periody.t5]
1 in 10 years2.71 × 24 = 65.04 mm000 %82.5 %0 of 18[73, periody.t10]
1 in 25 years3.90 × 24 = 93.6 mm1,32092.881.6 %113.5 %18 of 18[73, periody.t25]
1 in 100 years6.10 × 24 = 146.4 mm1,632112.1398.6 %201.8 %18 of 18[73, periody.t100]

What this page does not show, and why

Return periods in the DM standard [29, Table 0-1, p. 29]

AreaDesign return period
Residential development, local roads1 in 5 years, network checked for 1 in 10 years
Highways, expressways, palaces, government buildings, basements and critical areas1 in 10 years
Airports; culverts on secondary roads1 in 25 years (check 1 in 50)
Underpasses, basement car-park ramps, pipes on main roads, lagoons1 in 50 years (check 1 in 100)
Protection strip along natural channels (wadis)1 in 100 years

Method

The stormwater method is in section 5.4 [73].

9. What would turn this demonstration into a calculation

Each item below is closed or not published as open data; each one replaces a stated assumption of this passport. Without them the twin shows where the district is tight and why; with them the same models can be checked against Dubai measurements [61, s. 3.4, 5] [71, s. 1 item 8, 3.7].

City dataWhat it replaces or allowsWhere recorded
Traffic counts on roads and turns (any period, ideally peak hours)Calibrate the demand matrix to counts (SUMO routeSampler, GEH statistic) instead of network capacity[61, s. 1, 3.4]
Measured travel times or speeds (RTA background speed data)Check the model peak-hour travel times on main routes[61, s. 3.4]
Geometry and dates of the four new JVC access points (AED 6 billion programme)Build the RTA interchange scenario from drawings instead of descriptions[61, block (b) report, s. 5]
Official community boundary 681 and population by building or blockReplace the occupancy assumption and the census scaling factor[26, s. 3.5, 4]
RTA Trip Generation and Parking Rates ManualReplace substitute trip rates with Dubai rates[26, s. 3.4, 4]
Stormwater network: pipes, manholes, pump stations, outfalls, with levelsReplace the network we sized to the DM standard with the built one[71, s. 3.7]
Lidar or terrain model at 1 m or better (DTM plus buildings)Surface runoff along streets; the 30 m surface model cannot resolve kerbs or street levels[71, s. 3.5, 3.7]
Flood log of April 2024: points, depths, timesCheck the model against what was observed[71, s. 3.7]
Hourly rainfall from NCM for 14-17.04.2024Run the event as it fell, not as a daily total[71, s. 3.7]
Pump station and drainage operation records for 16-20.04.2024Model what the network actually removed[71, s. 3.7]
DEWA water network, connection points and supply pressure; DM sewer network and outfallsReplace the calculated water and sewer networks[26, block (c) assumption files]
DEWA 11/0.4 kV substations, transformer ratings, metered peaksReplace substitute load densities and our substation placement[26, s. 3.1, 4; block (c) assumption files]
DCAS ambulance posts and Civil Defence stations with coordinates; call log with response timesResponse-time layer from real posts and checked against real responses[35, block (c) assumption files]
Dubai Police and RTA camera layout with mounting height, angle, rangeCoverage from the real layout instead of a typical one[35, block (c) assumption files]

10. What changed on 9 October and why

Every correction of the calculation is listed here with its date, the old and the new value. Old values are kept with the project history commit they come from; new values are read from the current data files [35].

09.10.2026: Floor area recalculation (block a)

The FIVE Jumeirah Village footprint in OSM is its podium; multiplying it by 61 floors overstated floor area, electricity and residents. Floor area of known towers now comes from CTBUH; other towers of 8 floors and more get a 4-floor podium plus a typical floor of 2,200 m2 per tower (calibrated on FIVE); apartments are counted above the podium only. [94] [95]

QuantityBeforeNow
FIVE Jumeirah Village floor area, m2398,421 (before 9 Oct recalculation) [95]151,606 [2, ploshchad_pola_m2 of osm/way/934822377]
Buildings under the rule “podium 4 floors plus typical floor 2,200 m2 per tower”0 (rule did not exist) [96]100 [2, ploshchad_pola_pravilo]
District floor area, m211,847,347 (before 9 Oct recalculation (footprint x floors)) [95]9,893,770 [2, sum of ploshchad_pola_m2]
Residents today, occupancy 0.5 (calculated)103,887 (before 9 Oct recalculation) [96]81,264 [9, zhiteli]
Upper end of the population range (full occupancy, polygon Al Barsha South 4)169,027 (before 9 Oct recalculation) [96]124,953 [4, s. 3]
Car trips out of JVC, morning peak hour (demand matrix, before multipliers)12,787 (before 9 Oct recalculation) [96]9,887 [9, od_po_chasam.7.iz_rayona]
District demand multiplier of the baseline run0.36 (set once as 31,371 / 87,401) [97]0.4885 (file value 0.488545933066513) [19, mnozhiteli.rayon]

09.10.2026: Lost trips in route assignment fixed (block b)

The route builder silently dropped trips whose external destination was an edge unreachable from the network (Al Khail Road north-east, Hessa Street south-east). This affected every run before the fix; sources and destinations are now taken only from the strongly connected core of the network. [98]

QuantityBeforeNow
Trips dropped by the router in the baseline demand2,012 (of 19,288, before the fix) [98]0 [99, trip loss after fix]

09.10.2026: Census multiplier derived from data on every run (block b)

The district multiplier was set once as 0.36 from an earlier block (a) figure. Since the floor-area recalculation it is computed at every run as census residents of community 681 divided by the residents block (a) computes in the same polygon. [100]

09.10.2026: Hessa Street widening of 19.04.2026 checked against the model network

RTA widened Hessa Street to 4 lanes each way on 19.04.2026. The OpenStreetMap snapshot of 08.10.2026 used by the model already carries 4 to 5 lanes there, so no model edit was needed; the widening is now listed in the retrospective check. [84] [100]

09.10.2026: Merge capacity at the district exits calibrated (block b)

Before calibration the model let at most about 2.8 thousand vehicles an hour leave the district, below the 3,200 veh/h design figure of the single RTA bridge. Merges were calibrated to HCM per-lane capacity and the RTA bridge figure. [100] [60] [26]

QuantityBeforeNow
Vehicles leaving the district within the morning peak hour, baseline (measured at the last district street edge)3,522 (before merge calibration) [100]3,727 [7, baza.vyezd_iz_rayona.vyehali_za_chas]

09.10.2026: Tower test point moved off an existing building (block b)

The tower test point was inside an existing building (a shopping building, OSM way 700403018); it was moved to the nearest free plot, and the result there is within model noise. The service now checks the plot before every run. [100]

QuantityBeforeNow
Verdict for one tower of 40 floors near the Hessa Street exitbeyond model noise: v12 (Hessa Street) loses 2.9 more vehicle-hours in the peak hour (noise 1.6) (test point inside an existing building) [98]within model noise at 40 floors: the exits its cars use, v06 (Al Khail Road), v12 (Hessa Street), change by +3.5 vehicle-hours (noise 8.1); exits beyond noise elsewhere: v07 (with 19 exits at 2 standard errors about one false alarm is expected) [64, ryad[40 floors].vyvod_en]

Appendix B. Sources

Pending items in this build: none; every block has delivered the files this passport reads. Opened 09.10.2026 during our research unless stated. Internal notes and data files are available on request.

  1. [1] Project data file dannye/jvc/granica.geojson, block a. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  2. [2] Project data file dannye/jvc/zdaniya.geojson, block a. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  3. [3] Dubai Statistics Center, population 2023 by community, via citypopulation.de (community 681 Al Barsha South Fourth). https://citypopulation.de/en/uae/dubai/admin/ block (a) data passport, section 3
  4. [4] Block (a) data passport, available on request. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  5. [5] Mirror of the DLD project register, datadubai (projects.csv, cut-off 02.10.2026, licence CC BY 4.0 as declared by the repository). https://github.com/datadubai/dubai-real-estate-dld internal research note 08, section A
  6. [6] DXB Interact, off-plan projects in Jumeirah Village Circle (aggregator, vendor site) Vendor source. https://dxbinteract.com/dubai-offplan-project-prices/jumeirah-village-circle internal research note 08, section A
  7. [7] Project data file dannye/jvc/sumo/svodka.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 08:56
  8. [8] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/livnevka_svodka.json, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  9. [9] Project data file dannye/jvc/pasport_dannyh.json, block a. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  10. [10] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/voda_truby.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  11. [11] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/kanal_truby.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  12. [12] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/livnevka_truby.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  13. [13] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/niziny.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  14. [14] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/elektro_podstancii.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  15. [15] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/stroyki_nagruzka.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  16. [16] Project data file dannye/jvc/bezopasnost/doezd_zdaniya.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  17. [17] Project data file dannye/jvc/bezopasnost/kamery_tipovye.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  18. [18] Project data file dannye/jvc/bezopasnost/stancii.geojson, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  19. [19] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_baza.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  20. [20] Project data file dannye/jvc/README.md, block a. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  21. [21] Project data file dannye/jvc/relief.LICENZIYA.txt, block a. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  22. [22] Dubai Pulse (Dubai Data Establishment) Open Data Licence, Internet Archive copy of 07.07.2022, as analysed in the block (a) data passport, section 6.
  23. [23] Project data file dannye/jvc/ostanovki.geojson, block a. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  24. [24] Project data file dannye/jvc/proisshestviya.geojson, block a. file time 2026-10-09 06:27
  25. [25] Block (a) open issues, available on request. file time 2026-10-09 06:28
  26. [26] Internal research note 04, Dubai standards in numbers, available on request.
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  29. [29] Dubai Municipality, Stormwater Design Guidelines v2.0 (DM-WSA-SRPD-SW1), July 2024, marked Open Data by DM. https://dmpmedia.dm.gov.ae/uploads/2025/01/DM_Stormwater-Guidelines-F.24.01.25.pdf internal research note 04, section 3.3
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  33. [33] Dubai Building Code, 2021 Edition (Decree No. 45 of 2021). https://dmpmedia.dm.gov.ae/uploads/2021/12/Dubai%20Building%20Code_English_2021%20Edition_compressed.pdf internal research note 04, section 3.1, 3.2, 3.5
  34. [34] Search results, 2025, without an opened primary source (AGBI 01.2025 returned 403) Not verified. block (a) data passport, section 3
  35. [35] Project decisions of 09.10.2026, internal, available on request.
  36. [36] Project data file geroi/assety.csv, block e1. file time 2026-10-09 13:11
  37. [37] Project data file blender/materialy.csv, block e1. file time 2026-10-09 15:24
  38. [38] Project data file ekran/public/teksturi/LICENZII.txt, block d. file time 2026-10-09 05:50
  39. [39] Project data file dannye/jvc/sumo/jvc.net.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 07:37
  40. [40] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_baza-m1-t025.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  41. [41] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_baza-m1.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  42. [42] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_baza-x2.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  43. [43] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_baza-vecher.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  44. [44] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_baza-m1-vecher.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  45. [45] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-niz-p.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:49
  46. [46] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-verh-p.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  47. [47] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-niz.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:49
  48. [48] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-verh.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  49. [49] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_16-04-2024.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:49
  50. [50] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_razvyazki-rta.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  51. [51] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-niz-p-vecher.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:49
  52. [52] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-niz-stress-vecher.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  53. [53] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-niz-stress.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:49
  54. [54] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-niz-vecher.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  55. [55] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-verh-stress.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  56. [56] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_2029-verh-vecher.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  57. [57] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_baza-m1-t025-vecher.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  58. [58] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/dvizhenie_verh-125k.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  59. [59] Block (b) traffic model report, available on request. file time 2026-10-09 15:07
  60. [60] Dubai Media Office, RTA achieves completion of Al Khail Road improvement project, 21.10.2024. https://mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2024/october/21-10/rta-achieves-completion-of-al-khail-road internal research note 01, section 3.3
  61. [61] Internal research note 03, Traffic, available on request.
  62. [62] Hickert et al., arXiv 2608.19642: matching aggregate flows does not prove correct behaviour parameters. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.19642 internal research note 03, section 3.4
  63. [63] Project data file dannye/jvc/sumo/sluzhba/zamer.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 15:18
  64. [64] Project data file dannye/jvc/sumo/sluzhba/ryad_etazhnosti.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 15:17
  65. [65] Project data file dannye/jvc/sumo/scenarii/sluzhba-baza/kesh/bashnya_71824a89ec594e4f.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 15:03
  66. [66] Project data file dannye/jvc/sumo/scenarii/sluzhba-baza-m1-t025/kesh/bashnya_238fc66da52377a0.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 15:07
  67. [67] Project data file dannye/jvc/sumo/scenarii/sluzhba-baza-m1-t025/kesh/bashnya_71824a89ec594e4f.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 15:04
  68. [68] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/svodka_voda.json, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  69. [69] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/dopushcheniya_voda.md, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  70. [70] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/svodka_elektro.json, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  71. [71] Internal research note 07, Water of April 2024, available on request.
  72. [72] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/dopushcheniya_livnevka.md, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  73. [73] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/svodka_livnevka.json, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:47
  74. [74] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/dopushcheniya_elektro.md, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  75. [75] Project data file dannye/jvc/bezopasnost/dopushcheniya_doezd.md, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  76. [76] Project data file dannye/jvc/bezopasnost/svodka_doezd.json, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  77. [77] Project data file dannye/jvc/bezopasnost/svodka_kamery.json, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  78. [78] Project data file dannye/jvc/seti/svodka_stroyki.json, block c. file time 2026-10-09 14:48
  79. [79] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/stroyki_ocheredi.json, block b. file time 2026-10-09 15:18
  80. [80] Project data file dannye/jvc/blender/kadry.json, block e1. file time 2026-10-09 15:29
  81. [81] Blender Open Data benchmark, Blender 5.2.0, median scores (RTX 5090 OptiX; Apple M4 Pro 20-core GPU Metal), queried 09.10.2026 by block (e1). https://opendata.blender.org/
  82. [82] Block (e1) render time estimate, available on request. file time 2026-10-09 08:27
  83. [83] Project data file dannye/jvc/ekran/vyezdy_baza.geojson, block b. file time 2026-10-09 14:50
  84. [84] Dubai Media Office, RTA, Hessa Street widened to 4 lanes each way between Sheikh Zayed Road and Al Khail Road, 8,000 to 16,000 vehicles per hour, 19.04.2026 (opened 09.10.2026 by block b). https://mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2026/april/19-04/rta block (b) traffic model report, section 5
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  86. [86] Dubai Media Office, RTA signs AED 6 billion agreement with Dubai Holding, 02.03.2025. https://mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2025/march/02-03/rta-signs-aed6-billion-agreement-with-dubai-holding internal research note 01, section 3.3
  87. [87] JBA Risk Management, Looking back at the Dubai floods 2024 (insurance analytics vendor; quotes AP) Vendor source. https://www.jbarisk.com/knowledge-hub/insights/looking-back-at-the-dubai-floods-2024/ internal research note 07, section 3.1
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  95. [95] Project history, commit b8cbc1a (09.10.2026): block (a) floor area by CTBUH and the podium rule; block (a) report states the previous FIVE figure.
  96. [96] Project history, commit a3e784a (09.10.2026): block (a) data passport before the floor-area recalculation.
  97. [97] Project history, commit e94f40e (09.10.2026): block (b) baseline accepted with district multiplier 0.36 = 31,371 / 87,401.
  98. [98] Block (b) traffic build log, internal, available on request.
  99. [99] Block (b) traffic build log, available on request. file time 2026-10-09 15:18
  100. [100] Block (b) traffic model report, internal, available on request.
  101. [101] Eclipse SUMO documentation (O/D import, routeSampler, mesoscopic model, edgeData). https://sumo.dlr.de/docs/Tools/Turns.html internal research note 03, section 3.3, 3.4, 6

What we will compute on your data

After calibration the merges out of the district are not saturated: 136–606 vehicles an hour per lane against the HCM range of 1,800–2,200. Queues form on the arterials beyond the exits: Al Khail Road narrowing from 4 to 3 lanes (3,395 vehicles an hour at 42 % of the speed limit), the on-ramp merges onto Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road (about 2,900 vehicles an hour each), and a slip road narrowing from 4 to 1 lane(s) (OSM way 447602819, 1,793 vehicles an hour). This is where the RTA programme of AED 6 billion with four grade-separated access points is directed; without RTA interchange drawings and counts the model cannot be refined further Calculated [59, s. 6, arterials beyond the district] [86].

The same district and the same models, with the assumptions of this passport replaced by your records. The full list of datasets is in chapter 9 [61, s. 3.4, 5] [71, s. 3.7].

QuestionWhat the twin shows todayWhat we compute on your dataData needed
Where JVC jams in the peak hour, and what a new tower or interchange changesUncalibrated SUMO peak hour; demand set to the census level and network capacity [19, opisanie_en, mnozhiteli]Demand calibrated to your counts and checked with the GEH statistic; travel times checked on main routes; the four new access points built from drawings [61, s. 3.4] [101]Traffic counts, travel times, interchange drawings
How the drainage of JVC handles a storm like 16.04.2024A network we sized to the DM standard; 98.6 % of its length over full-bore capacity in the 1-in-100-year storm; low-lying spots on a 30 m surface model [8, periody.t100]The storm run hour by hour on your built network and terrain, surface runoff in two dimensions, compared with your 2024 log [71, s. 3.6, 3.7]Drainage network with levels, lidar or 1 m terrain, 2024 flood log, hourly NCM rain, pump records
Which pipes and substations a new project pushes past the standardNetworks we laid along streets and sized for today's buildings; red appears with the 2029 projects [68, scenarii] [70, scenarii]Margin of each real pipe and substation against each announced project, at your metered peaks [26, s. 3.1, 3.2, 4]DEWA water and power networks, DM sewer network, metered peaks
Which buildings an ambulance or fire engine reaches late in the peak and on 16.04.2024Travel time from 8 stations mapped in OpenStreetMap; not coloured while the list is incomplete [76, spisok_stanciy] [35]Response time from your posts, checked against your call log [35]DCAS and Civil Defence posts, call log
How many people live and will live in JVCA range of 31,371 to 124,953 residents from three sources [3] [4, s. 3]One number per building replacing our occupancy assumption [26, s. 3.5, 4]Population by building or block, community boundary